The difference between a player being a WR1 and WR2 in fantasy usually boils down to consistency. Many players at the position are capable of turning in some big performances on any given Sunday. There are not very many of them that do it more often than not.
Let’s take a look at the top 36 PFF wide receivers in the latest PFF fantasy rankings and study their track record of consistency since 2014.
We’ve gone week by week to tally the total fantasy points scored at the position and calculated how frequently each player had a “plus” effort, meaning finished above the average total points for wide receivers for that given week.
Here are some observations from this research:
(Editor’s note: Obviously, this was all written before Beckham’s injury Monday night, and let’s just hope for the best, yeah?)
Beckham has played in the league four seasons and he has scored double-digit touchdowns in each, finishing as a top-five wideout ever year. In 43 career games he’s only failed to reach double-digit PPR points eight times, but has scored 20 or more fantasy points 21 times. He’s as consistent as they come.
Most of Beckham’s damage has come from long range. He’s struggled to be elite in the red zone, pulling in eight of his 17 targets inside the 10-yard line over the past two seasons. The team added Brandon Marshall and drafted rookie tight end Evan Engram and both could emerge as the team’s primary options near the end zone.
The arrival of these two players could take away a few targets, but it also should help open things up for Beckham as well as defenses will have to dedicate some of their resources elsewhere.
Over the last four years, Brown has averaged 120 catches, 1,579 yards and 10.8 TDs per season. He’s led the NFL in targets over that stretch while averaging 11.1 looks per game. That has led to the Steeler wideout delivering 10 or more fantasy points in 70.2 percent of his contests during that span.
Like Beckham, Brown will have some more wide receivers to share targets with this season as Martavis Bryant is expected back from suspension. No matter, he will still see targets galore. He’s finished third, second, first, and fourth in targets since 2013.
Brown remains one of fantasy football’s safest picks and shouldn’t fall outside the top-three overall in any draft. A solid case can still be made for him as the top overall pick in PPR formats.
Source: Pro Football Focus